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We are officially 3 weeks away from the start of the 2022 NFL draft and with the combine and most of the pro-days wrapped up, I am releasing NFL Mock Draft 1.0. This mock draft is not the picks I would make, but the picks I think the teams will make based on their needs and what I'm reading and hearing.
1. Jaguars: DE. Aidan Hutchinson – Michigan Most are projecting the Jags to draft an OT or DE, and I agree. Yet the team franchise tagged Cam Robinson, who played a lot better down the stretch of the 2021 season. They also drafted Walker Little last year in the 2nd round, who might be ready to take over the RT spot. With Robinson yet to put together a great full season and only on a one-year deal, OT is still a position worthy of consideration, but I think an impact edge rusher will benefit this team more. Hutchinson has been the odds on favorite to be the top edge rusher taken this year, but Travon Walker's stock is red hot at the moment, and he’s a dark horse candidate to go 1st overall all of a sudden. 2. Lions: DE. Travon Walker – Georgia Let me start by saying I do not think Walker is a better prospect than Thibodeaux. Great combine or not, he shouldn't be picked 2nd . Yet Walker has all the momentum right now, and it seems like if the Lions are going to go with an edge guy, and if Hutchinson is gone, Walker most likely will be the guy. The Lions have a lot of other needs, but edge rusher is probably the biggest, so the Lions should take whoever the top edge rusher left on their board at 2nd overall. 3. Texans: DE. Kayvon Thibodeaux – Oregon Thibodeaux stock has taken a hit since the draft process started. He seemed like the consensus number 1 guy going into the season and at the very least number two only to Hutchinson, who had a Heisman caliber season. Now some mocks have him going as low as 7th overall. The Texans roster is devoid of starting caliber talent at multiple positions, so they should take the best player on their board. I think their decision at 3rd overall will be the same as the Jags, they’ll be picking either a tackle or DE, and I think Thibodeaux is better than the options at tackle. 4. Jets: CB. Ahmad Gardner – Cincinnati Where the Jets go at number four will be highly influenced by the top three picks. Edge is a need for them, and if one of the top three guys at that position is available at 4, they could pull the trigger and address the secondary with their 10th pick. However, with the top 3 edge guys all going in the top 3 in this mock, I think the Jets address an even bigger need at corner and get the top prospect at that position in Gardner. NY finished 30th in pass defense last season, and they are one of the least talented teams at corner in the league. Whether it’s fourth or 10th, this position needs to be addressed, and Gardner has the ability to live up to a top-5 selection. 5. Giants: T. Evan Neal - Alabama The Giants had one of the worst o-lines in the NFL last season, so they desperately need to draft an o-lineman with one of their multiple top-10 picks. Neal could go as high as first overall, and he’s the most complete tackle prospect in the draft as he projects to be very good as both a run and pass blocker. He and Thomas could grow into one of the best tackle duos in the NFL down the road. 6. Panthers: T. Charles Cross - Mississippi State Some believe the Panthers will draft a QB at this spot and that is certainly on the table. However, the Panthers have only won 5 games 3 years in a row, and haven’t made the playoffs since 2017. I believe they are looking to end that streak this season, and reaching for a QB at 6 in a “weak QB draft” won’t help them win in 2022. The Panthers o-line was one of the worst pass-blocking units in the NFL in 2021. Cross is the best pass-blocking tackle in the draft and should help immediately improve the o-line. 7. Giants: DE. Jermaine Johnson II – Florida State The Giants could double down and take Onwenu or even Linderbaum here and I wouldn't have a problem with it at all. However, it’s unlikely they’ll draft two offensive linemen in the top-10. The Giants don’t have an impact edge defender on the roster, and Johnson could potentially be that guy. 8. Falcons: WR. Garrett Wilson The Falcons are another team that could take a QB in the top 10. However, the Falcons are a team whose front office has to know they aren’t going to win next year. They are now in full rebuild mode with Matt Ryan in Indy, and receiver is a glaring need with Calvin Ridley suspended for at least a year, and Russell Gage now in Tampa. This is a deep WR class without a true consensus top player at the position, but Wilson’s combine performance might make him the first receiver taken. 9. Seahawks: T. Ikem Onwenu Seattle might have the worst starting QB in the NFL with Drew Lock slated to start. He’s certainly the worst starter that wasn’t a rookie last season. Yet, Seattle is almost certainly looking at a top-5 selection in next year’s draft, which is projected to have a much better QB class. Why not start building a better roster for your new young QB for next season and get one of the top offensive linemen in the draft. Onwenu is a physical force in the run game, and though he has work to do in pass-pro, the potential is there for him to be good in that area as well. 10. Jets: WR. Drake London – USC Receiver is also a huge need for the Jets, who recently tried to go all in to trade for Tyrek Hill. They lost out to the Dolphins, so I expect NY to look to draft a WR early. Predicting the order that the WRs in this class come off the board is going to be impossible, so I’ll try to base predictions on either what’s being reported or potential fit. Zach Wilson isn’t the most accurate guy yet, but he has a big arm and can extend plays and throw down the field on the move. A tall athletic guy with a huge catch radius like London could help Wilson tremendously and plays into what he does well. 11. Commanders: S. Kyle Hamilton – Notre Dame A lot of draft evaluation sites believe Hamilton is a top-5 talent in this draft. However, he has 2 things working against him. A. he had a somewhat disappointing 40 time at the combine and B. he plays safety which isn’t viewed as a premium position. The combination of the two could result in him falling out of the top-10. If that happens, 11 is as far as he’d slide because the Commanders don’t have a bunch of needs, but safety is at the top of the list. If Hamilton is on the board at 11, Washington potentially gets the best player on the board and fills their biggest need. 12. Vikings: DT. Jordan Davis – Georgia Davis solidified his spot as the top DT prospect after a monster showing at the combine, and if he’s on the board at 12, this might be the easiest pick in the first round to mock. They picked up Dalvin Tomlinson in free agency, but they need another impact player inside, especially with them switching to a 3-4 defense. We saw Davis thrive in a 3-4 at Georgia helping anchor one of the best college defenses in recent memory and ultimately winning a national championship. 13. Texans: CB. Derick Stingley Jr. – LSU Stingley is another guy whose stock has fallen from where it was at the start of the season. Once viewed as a lock to be the number one corner taken after an all-time great freshman year, injuries and inconsistent play over the last two seasons have evaluators puzzled over how to rank him. A team like the Texans, who have two 1st round picks and are not in win-now mode, seem like an ideal team to take a gamble on him and hope he can resemble the guy that had all the scouts buzzing back in 2020. 14. Ravens: DE. George Karlaftis – Purdue The Ravens had one of their worst defensive seasons in a long-time last year and while injuries played a large role in that, a lack of pass-rush even when guys were healthy was also a problem. Guys like Humphrey and Peters returning from injury along with the signing of safety Marcus Williams should immediately help turn around their league-worst pass defense. However, the Ravens don’t have an impact pass rusher, and recent mock draft on other sites seem to be underrating or the teams they talk to seem to be underrating Karlaftis. I’m not convinced that Walker is definitely better, and if the Ravens can get him at 14, that’s good value, and it fills a big need. 15. Eagles: LB. Devin Lloyd – Utah LB is a big need for the Eagles, and Lloyd projects as the best in the class. It's a close call between Lloyd and Dean, but Lloyd’s physical measurables give him an edge in the eyes of a lot of evaluators. 16. Saints: T. Trevor Penning – Northern Iowa The Saints don’t have many pressing needs, but LT is one after the loss of Terron Armstead in free agency. James Hurst is currently projected to start there. He’s a good swing tackle that filled in at both guard and tackle last season off the bench for the Saints, but he’s better suited in that role or as a guard if needed as a starter. The Saints should definitely be looking to upgrade and find more of a long-term solution at a premium position if they can. 17. Chargers: G. Zion Johnson – Boston College Johnson projects as the best guard in the class and could immediately fill a hole at RG for the Chargers. If Penning isn’t selected before 17, he could also be in play for the Chargers as RT is also a need. However, I think they should take Johnson even if Penning is available. Storm Norton was serviceable for them last season at RT, and Johnson is a better overall prospect than Penning. 18. Eagles: CB. Trent McDuffle – Washington I think the Eagles would look to go best player available if they draft a LB at 15. CB, DE, and WR are all areas where if the value is right, they could look to address. While the value is a little better here at WR, it’s a deep class, and they just drafted a WR in the 1st round last year. You can never have too many good corners in today’s NFL, so taking McDuffle here is a good investment. 19. Saints: WR. Treylon Burks – Arkansas It wouldn’t shock me if Burks ends up being the best WR from this class when we look back a few years from now. One could argue that WR is the Saints biggest need, and if they didn’t have this second 1st round pick to fall back on or a tackle-needy team drafting right behind them, I would’ve mocked a WR to the Saints at 16. Michael Thomas has essentially missed 2 seasons, and none of the other guys on the roster have proven to be impact players yet. Some have mocked a QB to the Saints, but the Saints signing Winston to a two-year deal and signing Andy Dalton to back him up tells me they don’t expect to draft a QB in the first round. 20. Steelers: QB. Malik Willis – Liberty The safest bet for a team to draft a QB in the first round would be the Steelers. Especially if it works out that not a single one has been taken by the time they select. Tribisky is just a stop-gap until they can find their next guy and unlike other QB needy teams in this draft (i.e. ATL, SEA, CAR) they aren’t picking so high that it would be a reach to take one of the top QBs from this draft. Also, unlike those teams, even without a great QB, they have a good enough coach and supporting cast to still win games and be competitive this year. Tomlin didn’t have a losing season when Mason Rudolph and Duck Hodges were under center the majority of the season, so it certainly isn’t outside the realm of possibilities that the Steelers will win 8 or 9 games in 2022. Doing so would also mean they wouldn't be drafting high enough to get one of the top QBs in next year’s draft. If they aren’t going QB, look for them to draft the best o-lineman available, but I think this is a good spot for the Steelers to draft the first QB of the draft. 21. Patriots: LB. Nakobe Dean – Georgia The Patriots defense needs playmakers. The way their defense got destroyed vs. The Bills in the playoffs was embarrassing. The loss of J.C. Jackson in free agency means that CB is in play here as well, but I think Dean is the best defensive player left on the board, and NE needs a LB most. 22. Packers: WR. Chris Olave – Ohio State The Packers not drafting a WR in the 1st round seems like it’s been a talking point for years, but with two 1st round picks and Adams in Vegas, I’d be willing to bet a good amount that trend comes to an end in this year’s draft. Given the quality of receivers in this class and the lack of consensus on how they’re ranked, getting the name on this pick right will be tough but expect the Packers to draft a WR here. Given that the Packers are in win-now mode and don’t have any proven WRs on the roster, I think they are more likely to stay away from a guy like Jameson Williams, whose coming off an injury. Unless they just have a significantly higher grade on guys like Williams or London, they should be looking to draft someone that will be ready to start working with Rodgers and building chemistry immediately. 23. Cardinals: WR. Jameson Williams – Alabama The Cardinals can go in a lot of different directions in this draft, but if the board plays out this way, I think the offensive-minded Kingsburry will be pushing for Arizona to draft Williams. With Hopkins and Moore already on board they don’t have to be worried about him not being ready as soon as camp starts. Pass rusher is definitely the bigger need with the departure of Chander Jones but the draft is about value, and I think there’s better value here at WR. We saw the Bengals benefit from having three 1,000-yard WRs, which led to a Super Bowl appearance. If Williams makes a full recovery, you’re getting a top 10-15 talent outside the top-20 at a premium position. 24. Cowboys: C. Tyler Linderbaum – Iowa O-line, WR, DT, and safety are all areas the Cowboys could address with this pick. And of the o-line positions, guard is the biggest need area. However, if Linderbaum is on the board at 24, Dallas has to just take him and figure it out. He’d easily be the best player on the board at this point. Beyond that, he’s a great scheme fit as the Cowboys love to utilize zone runs, and he’s the best zone run-blocker in the class. Either move him to guard or move Biadasz to guard. Just take him and figure it out. 25. Bills: CB. Andrew Booth Jr. - Clemson While the Bills had an elite defense in 2021, CB is a position they could use an upgrade at. Booth or Kyler Gordon would make sense for the Bills at this spot. They don’t really have a lot of other needs outside of guard, which would put a guy like Kenyon Green in play at this spot as well. But they signed Saffold in free agency, and Ike Boettger was solid for them. 26. Titans: G. Kenyon Green – Texas A&M WR is still a need for the Titans even after trading for Robert Woods, but that trade made it less pressing. The Titans have yet to sign replacements for 2 lost starters on the o-line in guard Roger Saffold and tackle David Quessenberry. Green played tackle last season in college, but he’s being projected as a guard. Maybe they could try him in camp at both. 27. Buccaneers: DT. Devonte Wyatt – Georgia There have been rumblings that Ndamukong Suh could return to the Bucs. Until that happens, DT is a need position for them, and Wyatt is projected as the second-best in the class. 28. Packers: OT. Bernhard Raimann – Central Michigan With WR addressed using their 22nd pick, I expect GB to strengthen their o-line with this pick. The versatility of Elgton Jenkins gives the Packers flexibility with how they look to improve upfront as he’s proven he can play at a pro-bowl caliber level at both tackle and guard. That means the Packers can take the best o-lineman on their board, and if it's a guard, Jenkins starts at RT, or if it’s a tackle like in this scenario, Jenkins can go back to his natural guard spot. 29. Chiefs: WR. Christian Watson – North Dakota State With two 1st round picks, and Tyrek Hill now a Dolphin, it’s a safe assumption the Chiefs are going to take a WR in the 1st round. In fact, many are speculating that they could move up to do so (they certainly have the ammunition after getting back 5 picks from MIA). However, I don’t like mock trades, so I’ve got the Chiefs staying put and taking the best WR prospect left. Guys like Jahan Dotson, George Pickens, or John Metchie could be the pick here, but I like the upside of Watson. He also ran a 4.38, so he could potentially give the Chiefs some of what they lost in Hill as a deep threat. 30. Chiefs: DE. Boye Mafe – Minnesota Mafe might not last this long as his stock has started to climb after an impressive combine but if he is, expect the Chiefs to take him. Finding another edge guy to pair opposite Frank Clark should be the team’s next biggest priority after replacing Hill. 31. Bengals: CB. Kyler Gordon – Washington In a perfect world, either Tyler Linderbaum or Zion Johnson fall to 31. They might even take Green if he were available here. But with all the 1st round offensive line talent off the board, I think a better investment for the Bengals than reaching for someone to play LG would be to take a player like Kyler Gordon or another player that they have high on their board that is still available. Gordon is being underrated by a lot of draft evaluation sites in my opinion. Also, while it may not be a huge need, CB is definitely a position the Bengals should be looking to bring in young talent at. Eli Apple is still slated to be one of their top 3 corners next year. Gordon could be a needed upgrade. 32. Lions: QB. Kenny Pickett – Pitt The Lions pick again right at the top of the second round at 34th overall, so they’ve got a lot to consider with this pick. I think if they decide they want to draft a QB in this draft that could potentially be a starter down the road for them, this is the pick to do it, especially if only one QB has been drafted by this point. Willis, Pickett, Corrall, and Ridder all appear to be in the running to be one of the first QBs taken in this draft. There is no clear consensus with this group, and there is also the possibility that a QB-needy team come trade back into the first round to get a QB if they start to fall. Ridder seems to be the hot name of late, but Pickett has been the top guy on many boards throughout the process, and it’s hard to believe that any other QB besides Willis is going ahead of him.
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We're officially one week into free agency so let's look at the top free-agent offensive linemen that have signed new deals and discuss whether or not it was a good signing based on value, fit, and need.
Tackles
Guards
Centers
T. Terron Armstead, Duane Brown, Eric Fisher, Bryan Bulaga, Marcus Cannon G. Quinton Spain, Erek Flowers, Trai Turner, Darryl Williams, Laurent Duvernay-Tardif C. JC Tretter, Brett Jones, Matt Paradis, Trey Hopkins Super Bowl points spread
*Predicted winners are in bold Predictions Regular Season Record: 165-106-1 Predictions Playoffs Record: 10-2
1. Andrew Whitworth
Super Bowl LVI will be the second consecutive Super Bowl in which a 40-year-old is starting and playing at an elite level. Whitworth might not have the star power of Tom Brady, but he's the best offensive lineman playing in this game despite his age. Whitworth was a top-five tackle this season. He had the 4th best PA% among tackles and was third in pass block win-rate. Whitworth is able to still play at a high level because he still plays with superb technique at his age. He rarely makes mistakes. 2. Rob Havenstein Havenstein is the second-best o-lineman in this game. He and Whitworth form one of the best tackle duos in the league. Havenstein had a terrific year in his own right. He uses his 6'8 330 pound frame to be a force in both phases of the game. He was top 10 in PA% and top five in pass-block win rate among tackles. He was an even better run-blocker this year as he was the best run-blocker on the Rams o-line. 3. Quinton Spain Spain is the Bengals best player upfront. He was the most consistent pass-blocker on a unit that struggled as a whole in that aspect. He finished 18th among guards in PA% at 3.76%. He was also very good in the run game as he especially thrived on zone run plays. The film shows numerous plays in which he made great reach blocks or simply moved people around in the run game. 4. Jonah Williams Williams is the Benalgs most talented offensive lineman but he's a close second to Spain in terms of consistency and on-the-field play. Williams was much better in the first half of the season compared to the second. He only allowed 14 pressures and three sacks in his first eight starts and looked like he'd be in the mix for a pro-bowl spot on the AFC roster. However, he allowed 26 pressures and five sacks in his last eight starts. The Bengals will need the guy who played in the first half if they hope to slow down Von Miller and Leonard Floyd. 5. Brian Allen Allen had his struggles in pass pro, but run-blocking is more important for centers and Allen was one of the better run-blocking centers in the NFL in 2021, especially thriving on zone run plays. His prowess as a run-blocker is the primary reason he lands at number five on this list. Look for the Bengals to try and expose him in pass-pro scenarios as he allowed five sacks and was 24th among centers in PA%. 6. Austin Corbett Corbett comes in at number six and he's the Rams best guard slightly. He was middle of the pack with a PA% of 5.04% and only allowed three sacks. He was also solid in the run game this season and while he's fine on zone plays, he was superior to his interior teammates on gap runs. 7. David Edwards Edwards has overachieved from his draft position as a fifth-rounder in 2019 to become a legitimate starting guard in the NFL. He has his flaws and can get overwhelmed by more talented players at times but his numbers on the year are right on par with Corbett as his PA% was 5.19%. However he gave up twice as many sacks and Corbett was a little better in the run-game. 8. Trey Hopkins This is the portion of the list where there is a significant drop-off in performance from the top-7. Hopkins was slightly better in PA% than Allen finishing one spot ahead of him in PA% but he didn't provide nearly the same impact in the run-game. The Rams should try and put him in situations where he has to block one-on-one and not spend the majority of the game helping double team Donald. 9. Isaiah Prince - In fairness to Prince, he was a sixth-rounder in 2019 and a backup tackle so he's not supposed to be in a position where he's starting in a Super Bowl and responsible for helping negate the most talented pass rush in the NFL. However, Riley Reiff was lost for the season in December so he's the guy at RT. He got abused by Maxx Crosby in the wildcard round and struggled in the AFC title game vs. the Chiefs. If the Bengals cannot stay on schedule and get forced into a lot of third and long situations, I don't trust Prince to hold up vs. the Rams edge rushers one-on-one. 10. Hakeem Adeniji Adeniji is another guy who should be a backup in this game but injuries forced him into action this season. He's played more than Prince has due to injuries to Xavier Su’A-Filo and Jackson Carman (also inconsistent play from Carman). It's a chance that we can see both Carman and Adenjiji take snaps at RG but regardless of which one of them is out there, the RG of the Bengals will be the worst offensive lineman on the field in this game. NFL Point spreads Conference Championships
*Predicted winners are in bold Predictions Regular Season Record: 165-106-1 Predictions Playoffs Record: 9-1
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