A sneaky upset pick this week is the Saints over the Bucs. The Saints are 5.5 underdogs at home, so that could be a good bet they at least cover if they don’t win the game outright. The Saints were 2-0 last year in the regular season vs. the Bucs, and division games in the NFL are always unpredictable. If the Saints are going to pull off the upset, a key to victory for them is going to be blitz pickup. So today we’ll look at some of the different blitz looks Tampa used last week vs the Bears, and we’ll look at how the Saints handled the blitz when they played the Panthers in week two. I chose that game to look at because the Panthers and Bucs are first and second in blitz rate according to the olinestats pressure report. So I thought it would be helpful to see how the Saints looked against one blitz heavy team to project how they might stack up against another. 


In the first play, The Bucs send two defensive backs on blitzes off the edge, and it works. Winfield gets home off the right edge and strip-sacks Fields. It worked despite the fact the Bears were in max protection with only the two WRs out on routes. The problem for the Bears in this play is that they didn't slide protect. Simple slide protection to the left, and they get the blitz picked up with ease. The LT takes the SS, the LG takes the DE, the C takes the DT, and they've got the RG, RT, and two TEs to pick up the three rushers coming from the left. Because they didn't slide protect, Peters was left in a no-win situation where he had to try and block two guys. He was indecisive, and both got past him to put hits on Fields. ​

The second play is a scenario from the Saints/Panthers game in which the Saints allow a sack despite having the numbers advantage just like the Bucs did in the play above. Simple slide protection to the right could have allowed the Saints to pick this blitz up, but they played it straight and tried to have Kamara go across the formation to pick up a blitzer on the opposite edge, and he was unable to. Kamara is not a good pass pro back, so that's a lot to put on his plate. The Saints will need to simplify things vs. the Saints and make better pre-snap adjustments to the looks they get. 

Another thing the Saints are going to have to deal with is bluff blitzes. In the play below, TB has seven guys at the LOS, and each is a threat to blitz. At the snap, two drop into coverage and only five rush. Bluffing can cause sorting issues upfront and read issues for QBs. The Bears did a good job of picking up the blitz in the play below. However, teams that blitz as much as TB also allow more one-on-one matchups for their edge rushers, and they have two good ones. Both beat their blocks and got pressure on that play. The Saints have better tackles than the Bears, so they should be able to handle these kinds of one-on-one situations better. 

Handling blockers one-on-one if they get blitzes picked up won't be what the Saints have to worry about most. It's getting things sorted correctly that is key. In the play below, the Panthers are showing a potential all-out blitz with eight defenders at the LOS. However, four of them drop into coverage at the snap, and only four rush. The Saints have plenty of blockers to handle a four-man rush, but the bluff causes confusion, and a defender gets to the QB completely untouched. Terron Armstead makes an error in judgment by allowing the inside defender to go free. Based on how the play worked out, the Saints were only going to protect five and send five players out in patterns. Given the pre-snap blitz look, that has to mean they had multiple hot options ready. Therefore, in a situation where you know you're going to be outnumbered, the offensive line has to protect inside-out first, even if that means an outside guy gets left unblocked because the inside defender can get to the QB the fastest. 

Lastly, we're going to look at edge blitzes. Devin White probably rushes more than any non defensive lineman in the NFL, and he can come from inside or the edge. He's really fast and knows how to use rush moves so the Saints need to account for him. In the play below, The Bears are in an empty set. At pre-snap, White being on the edge could be chalked up to simply being in a position to cover the RB that's lined up in a H-position. However, the Saints should have the mindset whenever White is on the edge that he's coming. He came on this play, but it was negated by the Bears having Fields on a rollout. Also, the back got him picked up. Kamara is often asked to run routes on pass plays but there are times when he does stay in to block and he's going to have his hands full with White. 

In the play below, the Panthers send a DB off the edge, and the Saints don't get him picked up because he timed up his blitz perfectly. It also didn't help that the C allows instant pressure inside which forces Kamar's hand early to the point where he immediately has to help and never gets to read things. Had the C got the defender blocked, Kamara could've potentially picked up the DB off the edge. This goes back to the bluff blitzes we talked about earlier. The C was concerned with an LB that ended up dropping into coverage and allowed another defender to go free. 

The Bucs have blitzed 124 times this season, that's the most in the NFL. In fact, they're the only team that has blitzed more than 100 times this season. While Jamies has done a better job of not turning the ball over this season, his career suggests there's always the possibility that he can have one of those multiple interception games, and pressure can lead to QB mistakes. If the Saints are going to pull off the upset, they must handle the Bucs blitzes. 

NFL Point Spreads Week 8 

*Predicted Winners are in Bold
Predictions Record on the season: 60-47

• Green Bay Packers at Arizona Cardinals: ARI -6 (UPSET PICK OF THE DAY)
• Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills: BUF -13.5
• Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons: ATL -3
• Philadelphia Eagles at Detroit Lions: PHI -3.5
• Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts: TEN -1.5
• Los Angeles Rams at Houston Texans: LAR -14.5
• Cincinnati Bengals at New York Jets: CIN -10.5
• Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns: CLE -3.5
• San Francisco 49ers at Chicago Bears: SF -3.5
• Jacksonville Jaguars at Seattle Seahawks: SEA -3.5
• New England Patriots at Los Angeles Chargers: LAC -5.5
• Washington Football Team at Denver Broncos; DEN -3
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints: TB -5
• Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings: DAL -2.5
• New York Giants at Kansas City Chiefs: KC -10​

​ 

1. Dallas Cowboys (Previous Rank: 1) – Bye Week 
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Previous Rank: 4) – I’ve maintained all year that the Bucs have the best pass-pro offensive line regardless of what the numbers say. However, after a dominant performance against the Bears in which they allowed only four pressures, the Bucs are now number one in PA%. No player allowed more than one pressure in the game, and now the Bucs have run-blocked well for three straight games after a slow start in that area. Suddenly, Tampa is right on the Cowboys and Browns heels for the best offensive line in the NFL.  
3. Cleveland Browns (Previous Rank: 2) – The Brown o-line hasn’t been fully intact since week four, yet they continue to be productive. They had struggled in pass pro vs. the Browns as they allowed 13 pressures on 36 pass snaps and had a PA% of 36% as a group. But they put on a dominant performance run-blocking and were able to carry the day with a backup QB and a third-string RB in the starting lineup. Wills still doesn’t look 100%, and he was the worst in the group on Thursday night allowing five pressures and struggling in the run game. The good news is Jack Conklin returned to practice Monday and should be ready to go next week.  
4. Los Angeles Rams (Previous Rank: 5) – Brian Allen’s struggles in pass pro notwithstanding, the Rams o-line played great on Sunday. They only allowed four pressures and one sack, and all of that came from Allen. The other four starters had zeros across the board. 
5. Washington Football Team (Previous Rank: 3) – Washington’s o-line looked like a unit missing two starters on Sunday vs. GB. They allowed a season-high 22 pressures and played their worst game of the season. It was so bad they dropped from first in team PA% to 11th. Lucas struggled in place of Cosmi, as he allowed five pressures, but the biggest surprise was Leno having his worst game of the year allowing two sacks and seven pressures. Scherff and Cosmi are currently listed as questionable, but Cosmi might be further away from coming back than Scherff. Coach Rivera suggested earlier in the week that Scherff may be available this week. Washington firing on all cylinders at full strength is a top-five caliber line, but for now, they take a hit in the rankings given last week’s performance. The Rams now rank fifth in PA%, and if there was a stat to show it, they’d probably rank first in execution and football IQ. 
6. San Francisco 49ers (Previous Rank: 6) – You can’t blame the 49ers o-line for their offensive struggles. Even without Trent Williams in the lineup, this unit only allowed five pressures and one sack on Sunday night and ran block well enough for Mitchell to rush for 107 yards on 18 carries. Trent Williams is currently day-to-day and most likely will return to the lineup this week. The 49ers rank in the top third of the league in rush YBC/Att and are fourth in PA%. This unit has four good offensive linemen (Williams, Tomlinson, Mack, and McGlinchey), and one of them may be the best in the NFL (Williams). This group has been consistently good all year and is going steady as a top 10 line.  
7. Arizona Cardinals (Previous Rank: 7) – Not much to say this week about this unit with them coming off a game vs. the expansion caliber Texans. I don’t think any offensive line has had a bad game against them all season. Now the Cardinals didn’t play great as they allowed eight pressures, two sacks, two TFL, and two penalties, but they were plenty good enough to get the job done. 
8. Los Angeles Chargers (Previous Rank: 8) – Bye Week 
9. New England Patriots (Previous Rank: 15) – The Patriots offensive line had their best game of the year, and yea it was against the Jets, but when you combine with how they’ve been playing over the past three weeks, there is cause for excitement for Pats fans who are hoping they can still salvage this season. This unit looked like the group we ranked 2nd in the preseason o-line rankings for the first time all season. Wynn had his best game of the season, Onwenu has been great since taking over at RT, Karras is yet to have a bad game since being inserted into the starting lineup, and Andrews and Mason are also playing well. The Patriots are going to continue to rise if they can keep this up. 
10. Kansas City Chiefs (Previous Rank: 9) – The Chiefs have been a disappointment this season. While I have started to hear chatter about the offensive line underachieving, I can’t go that far. Honestly, Patrick Mahomes, the defense, and the skill players have all underachieved more than this group. They came into the season starting a completely new offensive line that included a player they traded for, another free agent pickup, and three rookies. Offensive line may be the most chemistry-dependent position in the league, and none of these guys played together before this season. Yet they had risen to 9th in our rankings last week. The raw pressure numbers for the Chiefs are high, but that is because they throw a ton. They didn’t play that great vs the Titans as they allowed four sacks, 15 pressures, and had four penalties. But overall on the year, The Chiefs have been better than most offensive lines in the NFL. 
11. Philadelphia Eagles (Previous Rank: 10) – The Eagles were up against the best pass-rushing D-line in the NFL, and they were not that bad as a group. Jordan Mailata individually was awful in pass pro which hurt their overall numbers. He allowed seven pressures and one sack and had his worst game of the year. He was still great in the run-game though. Lane Johnson returned to the lineup after missing three games for mental health reasons and was solid. He was pulled late in the game after he got his ankle stepped on, but the Eagles say it was just as a precaution, and he should be fine for next week. The Eagles have been sort of up and down in pass pro all season, which is why they rank 20th in PA%, but they have been one of the better run-blocking teams all year with Kelce leading the way. 
12. Tennessee Titans (Previous Rank: 13) – The Titans o-line has run-blocked well most of the season, but they played their best game in pass pro vs. the Chiefs. Now some might chalk that up to them playing the Chiefs, but the Titans are on a three-game streak of allowing less than 10 pressures and are trending up in that phase. Derrick Henry’s mediocre game was more of a testament to the Chiefs completely selling out to stop the run than poor run-blocking by the offensive line, and that is why Tannehill was able to carve them up through the air.     
13. Indianapolis Colts (Previous Rank: 17) – Forget numbers, the big news for this unit is that Quenton Nelson was back in the lineup this week. There were some signs of rust as he allowed two pressures and had two penalties after not allowing any pressures or committing any penalties in his previous games this year but don’t expect that to last as he gets back into the flow of things. Fisher has strung together his best two games of the season and looks to finally be regaining form himself. Even Braden Smith has a chance to play for the first time since week one according to coach Reich. The Colts had been one of the most disappointing lines in the league for the first quarter of the season, but as guys get healthy, they may end up being one of the best down the stretch. 
14. New Orleans Saints (Previous Rank: 20) – The Saints o-line has been dealing with injury all season as Erik McCoy, the starting center, was lost in week one after only five snaps. And in an ironic twist, they had all five starters back in the lineup for the first time all year, and Peat goes down with a torn pec that is likely to have him out for the rest of the year. They just can’t catch a break. The good news is Armstead was not only back in name, he looked liked his old self allowing only one pressure and performing like the best player in this group. Ramczyk appears to be trending up in pass pro after a rough start to the year, and McCoy looked good for a guy that hasn’t played since only lasting five snaps of the first game. The question for the Saints will be the guard play. Peat is gone for the year but, he wasn’t playing that well anyway. Thockmorton will be looked in as a starter for the rest of the year, and Ruiz will move back to his natural guard spot with the return of McCoy.  
15. Baltimore Ravens (Previous Rank: 11) – The Ravens o-line struggled in their blow-out loss to the Bengals. Their struggles as a group came more in the run game. Lamar will typically be able to get rushing yards regardless of blocking because of his ability to scramble, but the quality of run-blocking can be seen in the Ravens RB numbers. They only had 29 yards on 11 carries. They weren’t bad in pass pro outside of Villanueva. He allowed eight of their 16 pressures, and it was his third disaster pass-pro game of the year. One game doesn’t negate an entire year of work in which this has been a productive run-blocking group all season, and they’ve mostly kept Lamar protected outside of Villanueva. All four other Ravens starters have PA% under five (Villanueva is at 11.7%).  
16. Cincinnati Bengals (Previous Rank: 12) – The Bengals have been the surprise team of 2021 in the NFL. They’re tied for first in the AFC, Joe Burrow looks like he might be a future star, and Jamar Chase has best WR in the NFL potential. However, the improvement of the Bengals offensive line has gone mostly unnoticed by the national sports media. Quinton Spain is this unit’s best player and is playing at a pro-bowl caliber level this season. He is first among guards in PA and PA% (min 300 snaps) and has only allowed two pressures in the last four games. Yet despite his impressive pass pro numbers, Spain has been even better in the run game. Jonah Williams play has fallen off from the high level he was at earlier in the year, but he has still been one of the better tackles in the NFL this season. Reiff has been solid as well, and the play of these three guys has the Bengals ranked ninth in PA%. More consistent play from Hopkins and Carman could really help this offensive line get to the next level. 
17. New York Jets (Previous Rank: 14) – A lot went terribly wrong for the Jets in their 54-13 loss to the Patriots, but the offensive line wasn’t bad. They had one of their worst run-blocking performances of the year, but it was a solid game for them mostly due to their performance in pass pro. They only allowed six pressures despite having to throw mostly the entire game. This group has been a pleasant surprise given their youth and the early loss of Mekhi Becton.  
18. Chicago Bears (Previous Rank: 22) – There’s usually not a lot to be happy about when you lose 38-3 but the Bears should be happy about the way this offensive line has come along since the start of the season. The Bears have a credible offensive line, which is why they were the first team to have an RB rush for 100 yards vs. TB this season. Peters is playing at a high level, and they’re finally getting good guard play from Daniels and Whitehair. Sam Mustipher is the weak link, and they’ll simply have to deal with his inconsistent play. The big question in the immediate future for this group will be can they hold up at RT until Ifedi comes off IR. They started this game with Lachavious Simmons, and he was so bad they benched him in the first half in favor of Alex Bars. 
19. Green Bay Packers (Previous Rank: 16) – The entire Packers offense right now has an average, just good enough vibe going right now, and the offensive line is included in that. They haven’t been bad, but they haven’t been good necessarily either, and the numbers. The good news is Elgton Jenkins looked a lot better in his second game back from injury and more in line with what fans should expect to see moving forward. To be fair, the Packers offensive line looked like a really solid top third of the league line earlier in the year, and then injuries hit. The loss of Josh Myers and Jenkins on top of Bakhtiari not being there started to really affect this o-line. Speaking of which, the Packers have reportedly ramped up his football activity, and while he most likely won’t play on a short week game this Thursday, he could make his first start of the year in their week nine game vs. the Chiefs. 
20. Buffalo Bills (Previous Rank: 18) – Bye Week 
21. Atlanta Falcons (Previous Rank: 19) – The Falcons o-line had a solid outing in their win over the Dolphins. Lindstrom continues to play well all-around, and Matthews had his third 0 pressures allowed game of the year. Hennessy had his first game of the year in which he didn’t allow a pressure, and Jason Spriggs honestly looked better than McGary (out due to Covid-19) in his first start at RT. Mayfield was the only Falcon that really struggled as he has all season. However, until the Falcons get more consistent play out of a third member of this group, I'm not overreacting to one good game vs. the Dolphins. 
22. Seattle Seahawks (Previous Rank: 21) – Duane Brown now has the highest PA% of any Seahawks starter upfront and has allowed 15 pressures on the season after allowing four more on MNF. He also has allowed a league-high five sacks after allowing one on MNF. Brown hasn’t looked like himself since week three, and it’s really hurt this offensive line. But Kyle Fuller, who has struggled all year, had an even worse game vs. the Saints, and was a liability in both phases of the game. The Seahawks offensive line isn’t a horrible one, but it’s not a good one either. 
23. Pittsburgh Steelers (Previous Rank: 23) – Bye Week 
24. Jacksonville Jaguars (Previous Rank: 24) – Bye Week
25. Minnesota Vikings (Previous Rank: 25) – Bye Week 
26. Denver Broncos (Previous Rank: 27) – While both Denver starting tackles struggled (combined seven pressures and two sacks allowed) vs. the Browns, the interior probably played their best game as a trio all year. Those results are likely due to the fact the majority of the Browns pressures all season have come from edge rushers because they lack quality interior rushers. The Broncos are going to have to play better more consistently upfront to be seen as anything more than a lower-tier offensive line. They are currently 25th in PA% and are still one of eight teams allowing pressure at a rate of higher than 30%. 
27. Detroit Lions (Previous Rank: 29) – The Lions played well upfront against a good Rams defense. They only allowed eight pressures and no sacks or TFL. They’re never going to be a great pass-pro team but if they can run-block like they did vs. the Rams more consistently they may be able to win a few games this season. Sewell has also put together back-to-back strong games after struggling for weeks. Expect peaks and valleys from him all year with him being a rookie that missed all of his final year of college, but there is no denying he has all the tools needed to develop into a really good franchise tackle one day.
28. Carolina Panthers (Previous Rank: 26) – The Panthers offensive line was never playing at a high level at any point this season, but their play in recent weeks makes what they were doing earlier in the year seem like top 10 o-line play. They’ve allowed 15 or more pressures in four of their last five games, and it’s no coincidence that Darnold is playing his worst football of the year at the same time this group is. Nobody will mistake Cam Irving for a good LT, but the Panthers will be clamoring for his return after Brady Christensen allowed two sacks and six pressures in his absence. Panthers now rank 31st in PA%. 
29. Las Vegas Raiders (Previous Rank: 28) – There is no getting around it, the right side of the Raiders o-line is a disaster. Leatherwood hasn’t been good at RT or RG, and Parker has only been marginally better than Leatherwood was at RT. However, the good news is Andre James played his best game of the year, and Kolton Miller is living up to his big offseason extension. Maybe the Raiders get him some help this offseason. 
30. New York Giants (Previous Rank: 31) – The Giants o-line had another poor run-blocking game, but the Panthers defense entered week seven first in pressures on defense, and this group only allowed seven. It was one of the most surprising results of the week, especially with Andrew Thomas out of the lineup. Given how this group has looked all year, it’s hard not to chalk the performance up to being a mere blip and not a trend. 
31. Houston Texans (Previous Rank: 30) – The pressure numbers say the Texans were good vs. Arizona, but this offensive line hasn’t been the same without Tunsil and Cannon. The offense has gotten even more vanilla than it already was in an effort to not only protect Mills, but the beat-up offensive line as well. 
32. Miami Dolphins (Previous Rank: 32) – Sunday’s game was a step in the right direction for this offensive line. Austin Reiter made his first start of the season and looks like he will help this offensive line. Unfortunately, Austin Jackson continues to start and allow defenders to get to the QB at a high rate. He leads the NFL with 33 allowed pressures. 

 
 

The Browns entered Thursday's night game with multiple starters out due to injury, most notably Baker Mayfield, Nick Chubb, Jack Conklin, and Kareem Hunt on offense. Given that, it was to be expected that the Browns probably weren't going to score a lot of points. However, they got to 17, and on their final drive, they were able to run out the clock and win the game. The Browns defense played well, and D'Ernest Johnson is being heralded as the hero of the game. However, the Browns offensive line was the real heroes of the night. In today's film session, we'll examine how the Browns set the tone for the game on their first drive and how they help seal the deal on the final drive. 

Opening Drive 

In the first play below, the Browns hit on a well-designed TE screen play and three of their offensive linemen upfront leading the way. The Browns offensive line has a reputation for being physical maulers that just overpower teams all the time, but their upfront guys can move, they block well in space, and that was on display in this play. 

The Browns are running zone left in this next play, and it works great. They created a great alley for Johnson to run through between Bitonio and Teller. Then, Tretter made a key block at the second level and gets the LB pinned and turned back towards the 

Play three looks like counter left, and Teller was the star of this play. Bitonio gives up some penetration on the left side which interferes with Teller's pull track. But what's significant is the adjustment he makes to essentially turn it into a fold block technique, and he cuts behind Tretter to get to the 2nd level and still gets the guy he should've blocked. The freeze-frame shows the wall setup that allowed Johnson to get loose. They literally have six Broncos defenders blocked in a straight line that spans about eight yards. 

The next play went for a four-yard TD run. The Browns were running zone split, and that is ideally what teams want it to look like around the redzone. The Browns offensive line simply used the Broncos pursuit against them, and washed them down to create a giant backside alley for Johnson to cutback through and get into the endzone. 

Closing Drive 

The next four plays are from the final drive in which the Browns iced the game. The Broncos were selling out to stop the run during the entire final drive, and the Browns still ran it well. The play below at first glance looks like it might not get much. Johnson approaches the LOS of there are no ideal running lanes. However, the Browns do a good job of staying engaged with blocks and getting pushed. That accomplishes two things on this type of play. A. it gives the RB extra time to find a running lane or bounce it, and B. they cause defensive lineman to get in the way of defenders at the 2nd level which is how Johnson was able to bounce this run without being touched for over 10 yards. 

In the next play below, Bitonio is pulling, and he makes a key block at the 2nd level that allows Johnson to squeeze through a tight hole and power through for a six-yard game. 

In the third play, the Browns take advantage of the Broncos run-stop first approach and hit them with play action. I don't know why the corner was playing with outside leverage given Landry is a guy that specializes on running shallow in-breaking routes, but he got beat inside, and with the rest of the box near the LOS or rushing the passer, Keenum had a very large window to throw that slant, and the Browns picked up the first. Also noticeable is how much time Keenum had to throw. He released the ball about three seconds after the snap and still would've had plenty more time to throw had Landry not uncovered. 

The last play was the play that won the game and allowed the Browns to get in victory formation. It's counter left again, just out of a different formation, but they get a similar result as an earlier play we looked at. Ideally, the Browns would want this run to hit off the TE's but with Teller kicking the end out. However, the edge guy did a good job of not getting up the field and squeezing down into the running lane which keeps Teller from kicking him out and forces Johnson to bounce it. Teller also does a good job of adjusting, getting around him, and pinning him further inside which narrows the path that Johnson has to bounce. That  allowed him to get downhill quicker and pick up the first down.